Jeff,
The single event rainfall criteria is simply an extrapolation of a flood control design criteria applied to water quality. As you are finding out, determining a single duration and intensity profile for a storm that is representative of a water quality problem is a difficult thing to do. In flood control, we pick storms that are conservative (i.e. large volume, short duration and high peak intensities) because flooding (typically we hope) is caused by infrequent events. While many people believe that water quality problems stem from all events, and not just the infrequent events, the single event criteria is still used for two reasons:
1. It is simple to use 2. If a water quality control measure is designed for a large event, it is believed that all the smaller events will be treated more effectively (this depends).
Since you posted to SWMM, I would be reticent if I didn't say that many people think (including myself) that continuous simulation is a better methodology to design water quality measures since it is more representative of the distribution of intensities and storm duration and, perhaps, a more scientific approach to water quality enhancment. SWMM is well suited for this.
Enough of the methodology debate, California has allowed the use of the 90th percentile rainfall intensity for flow through BMPs. I tend to like this approach since is somewhat of a bridge between the two methodologies (single and continuous) and you still have to do an assessment of the continuous rainfall record to determine the 90th percentile value.
Graham Bryant
www.envirocalm.com